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AWWA IMTECH59645

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AWWA IMTECH59645 Integrating Data, Statistics and Probability into a Planning Model: San Diego County Water Authority Regional Water Facilities Master Plan

Conference Proceeding by American Water Works Association, 04/18/2004

Gebert, Paul; Nakayama, Jennifer; Pyle, Rich

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The San Diego region has an intricate relationship with water supply and its distributionsystem, which is not easy to analyze without a good network model but developing areasonable model requires a strong foundation in data. The region's water distributionnetwork must be able to meet peak day demands, which can be 1.7 times the average day.Dry hydrologic years may see demands for supply shifting from local reservoirs to importedsources. Regional water resource development is a focus for the San Diego County WaterAuthority's (Water Authority) Regional Water Facilities Master Plan but this means analysisof a reoriented distribution network due to current flow patterns and the locations of resourceopportunities. The real challenges begin when the Water Authority team (the Team)incorporated the region's dynamic growth projection through a thirty-year time horizon.Population is projected to grow from the current 2.7 million people to well over 3.7 million by2030 and the impact from the population increase varies from one reach of the region to theother. This raises the question of how to meet current facility needs while filling thedemographic demand of the future. The foundation of this analysis is good data integrationand statistical examination of supply and demand trends.