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AWWA JAW72291

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AWWA JAW72291 Journal AWWA - Condition Assessment Modeling for Distribution Systems Using Shared Frailty Analysis

Journal Article by American Water Works Association, 07/01/2010

Clark, Robert M.; Carson, John; Thurnau, Robert C.; Krishnan, Radha; Panguluri, Srinivas

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Using data collected by the Laramie, Wyoming,water utility, this research found that pipediameter and pipe material were two majorfactors that related to pipe breakage rates. Inaddition, there were a number of unknownfactors (frailties) that also affected breakagerates. It was determined that the frailty wasmuch greater for metallic pipe than for PVCpipe even though the expected life of the PVCpipe was shorter.As a result of this research two importantconclusions can be drawn: it is possible toidentify the major factors that influence thereliability of a specific drinking water infrastructure;and, there are a number ofunidentified factors that affect pipe breakagerates. This article presents models that can beused for predicting pipe break rates to calculatethe cost and benefits associated withinspection technology.Potential insights that can be obtained bysystematically organizing and analyzing adrinking water utility's infrastructure databasewill be of interest to utility managers.However, achieving such a level of organizationis difficult and challenging, and requiresdedication and commitment on the part ofthe utility staff.

Includes 24 references, tables, figures.